First, I'd like to describe how best to think about this crisis.
One of the most important lessons in any introductory economics course is that markets are self-stabilizing.
- When there is an excess supply of wheat, its price falls. Farmers grow less and others consume more. The market equilibrates.
- When the economy slows, interest rates fall. When interest rates fall, more people take advantage of credit, the economy speeds up, and the market equilibrates.
This is much of what Adam Smith had in mind when he talked about the "invisible hand."
However, it was a central insight of Keynes' General Theory that two or three times each century, the self-equilibrating properties of markets break down as stabilizing mechanisms are overwhelmed by vicious cycles. And the right economic metaphor becomes an avalanche rather than a thermostat. That is what we are experiencing right now.
What is the task of policy in such an environment?
The first component of the President's program is direct support for jobs and income to engage the multiplier process in favor of economic expansion. Increases in income lead to financial repair which supports further increases in income. Rising employment will lead to rising spending, which leads to further increases in income and employment.
The Recovery and Reinvestment Act is the largest peacetime economic expansion program in the country's history. It will inject nearly $800 billion into the economy, ¾ of it within the next 18 months. The Council of Economic Advisors' estimates suggest that the Recovery and Reinvestment Act will save or create 3.5 million jobs. It will at the same time do some of the work that the nation has needed done for a long time—doubling renewable energy capacity in the next 3 years, supporting middle class incomes, modernizing ten thousand schools, and making the largest investment in the spine of our national economy – the nation's infrastructure – since Dwight Eisenhower's investment 50 years ago.
It is surely too early to gauge the broader economic impact of the President's program. But it is modestly encouraging that since it began to take shape, consumer spending in the US, which was collapsing during the holiday season, appears, according to a number of indicators, to have stabilized.
What specific fiscal policy priorities seem to be at work here, and what are their pros and cons for AD or AS? You can view the line-item breakdown here. What specific things in this economic climate might hinder the multiplier effect of Obama's fiscal policy? Don't just write about general theory...
